The Investing Week Ahead: 6/6/22
Remembering D-Day, scratching our heads over Facebook, determining if Five Below is worth the investment, and praying that inflation comes in a bit tamer.
On this day in 1944, over 156,000 Allied forces stormed the beaches of Normandy in Nazi-occupied France — the greatest seaborne invasion in history.
By the end of August that year, all of northern France was liberated from Nazi control. As Google investors, we find it reprehensible that their homepage today honors the creator of the espresso machine instead of D-Day. If you have a WWII veteran in your family, please give them our thanks.
Let’s jump into everything you need to know about the investing week ahead. But first…
What’s Going on at Facebook?
In the company’s most recent earnings report, Meta (which will have its stock ticker changed this week) reported that they’ve seen no drop in monthly active users (MAUs). In fact, monthly users on Facebook has reached a mind numbing size of 2.936 BILLION.
To our North American bias, this seems odd. Facebook is one of the last social media platforms I’d use and is never a part of my daily routine. The vast majority of folks in our network rarely use the platform and Sheryl Sandberg, the company’s COO & second-in-command, just announced that she’s stepping down.
All things considered, the lens through which Americans view Facebook would lead anyone to believe that the company is on a downward trajectory.
But check this out..
While growth in the US & Canada has pretty much flatlined, Facebook continues to add millions of users in the ‘Asia-Pacific’ and ‘Rest of World’ categories:
This is an easy company to be critical of and perhaps the best has already passed for the company in North America, but let’s keep an eye on the global moves that Mark Zuckerberg makes over the next year or so. I’m convinced that Facebook is far from dead, despite having little-to-no love for the platform.
The Investing Week Ahead - Too Long, Didn’t Read:
⚡ A calmer earnings week allows us to focus on Docusign, Five Below, and Nio.
⚡ Too many investor events to count — we’re eyeing AAPL, AMD, Spotify, and Target.
⚡ Hoping that the CPI (inflation) updates on Friday don’t ruin our weekend.
Key Earnings Announcements:
Nio is expected to touch on its newly-formed partnership with AMD, Docusign will address concerns over mounting competitors, and JM Smucker faces the fire on a massive product recall.
Monday (6/6): Coupa, Futu, GitLab, SAIC
Tuesday (6/7): Casey’s General Stores, Cracker Barrel, Dave & Buster’s, JM Smucker
Wednesday (6/8): ABM Industries, Campbell’s, Five Below, Ollie’s, Thor Industries, Vera Bradley
Thursday (6/9): Docusign, Nio, Rent the Runway, Stitch Fix, Vail Resorts
What We’re Watching:
Signed, Sealed, Delivered? Holding a 1% weighting of my overall portfolio, I’ll be making a close examination of Docusign’s earnings this week. The stock has taken a beating, in-part due to unrealistic forward guidance laid out by the company’s execs. While I do think it goes lower, the company's adjusted EBITDA growth is estimated to reach a bottom in FY23 before posting a growth of +20.3% in FY24 (versus revenue growth of +17.3%). Stiff competition like Dropbox’s HelloSign and Adobe Sign keep me from getting overly excited about Docusign, but I do believe that the stock will be just fine in the long run.
If you’re interested, an M.D. at RBC Capital Markets had a pretty cool interview about Docusign being an attractive buyout option for a company like Salesforce.
How Low Can You Go? I’ve become interested in learning more about Five Below, the discount store that’s growing its reach across the country. On one hand, the rough earnings releases of Target and Walmart have everyone worried about even companies that are selling products that people need. On the other hand, Five Below execs are convinced they can double their EPS by 2025. I have no current position in Five Below, but am eager to see this week’s results.
PB&J, Hold the PB: If you’re a peanut butter lover, you may want to double check your pantry. JM Smucker revealed a massive recall of its products for salmonella, mostly pertaining to JIF peanut butter. This will be the company’s first major investor event since the safety alert was released.
Investor Events:
Everyone in the country decided to have an event for their shareholders this week.
Monday (6/6): Pear Therapeutics First-Ever Investor Day
Tuesday (6/7): MongoDB World 2022, Penn National Gaming Annual Meeting
Wednesday (6/8): eBay Annual Meeting, Hasbro Annual Meeting, Spotify Investor Day, Urban Outfitters Annual Meeting
Thursday (6/9): AMD Investor Day, Best Buy Annual Meeting, TJ Maxx Annual Meeting, Wendy’s Investor Day
Friday (6/10): Spirit Airlines Vote on Merger with Frontier Group
Saturday (6/11): Target Annual Meeting
Throughout the Week:
Apple Worldwide Developers Conference — A first look at new Apple developments at their Cupertino, California campus
Goldman Sachs Travel & Leisure Conference — Hyatt & Marriott headline
Goldman Sachs Global Semiconductor Conference — Analog Devices & Intel headline
Baird Global Consumer, Tech, and Services Conference — 300 public & private companies expected to attend, including Amplitude, H&R Block, and Walmart
Needham Virtual Automotive Tech Conference — Nvidia headlines
Bank of America 2022 Global Tech Conference — Nvidia, Upwork, Visa, & Zoom headline
What We’re Watching:
Summer Vibes Galore: In Spotify’s April earnings release, the company revealed a +19% annual increase in total monthly active users and a +15% annual increase in Premium subscribers. Just this morning, Raymond James upgraded the stock to a ‘Buy’ and argues that the music subscription service is in better shape than Netflix.
Advanced Micro Dominance: A lot of eyes will be on AMD’s investor day this Thursday, and deservedly so. The company just announced a formal partnership with Chinese EV manufacturer Nio, which quickly led the second-largest US pension to open a position. Deutsche Bank loves the stock — saying “the strength of AMD's execution since its March 2020 Analyst Day cannot be understated, as evidenced by the company ultimately beating Street 2021 revenue estimates by +60% and EPS estimates by +75%.”
Major Economic Updates:
You know the deal. It’s the all-important time of the month when we get our inflationary updates.
Tuesday (6/7): Consumer Credit, Foreign Trade Balance
Thursday (6/9): Real Household Net Worth
Friday (6/10): Consumer Price Index (+8.2% Expected), Federal Budget Balance, UMich Consumer Sentiment Index
As detailed in yesterday’s Week in Review, the May Jobs Report came back with good enough results to lead most to believe that the Fed will not be raising rates any higher than +0.5% this summer.
You may remember that last month’s inflation reading came in at +8.3% — higher than the +8.1% expected. As a result, the markets took a tumble:
Let’s hope that inflation can finally take a turn to the downside (at least according to how the government measures it), and prevent the FOMC from needing to raise rates at a more aggressive pace than already anticipated by the market.
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.